July 26, 2006
To Benefit Iran
LATEST JOURNALS
o, this is not the opening salvo of World War 3, but it could be. At this juncture, it is a ploy to galvanize our attention, give impetus to columnists and pundits who need to be read and heard, and it surely is an adventurous way of selling the Republican mid-term election scenario; if "The War on Terror" is sounding tired and not too productive, Armageddon might be just the trick to grab our attention, interest and concern. It is, at this stage, one hell of a headline and should it come to pass that insanity rules in the Middle East, then we would need to be prepared to go to hell.

When Israeli forces advanced into Lebanon in 1982, the army named its invasion "Operation Peace for Galilee". Israel's intervention in the Lebanese civil war resulted in over 1,500 soldiers being killed. The war haunts Israelis as Vietnam is remembered in our collective memories. Lebanon is where, to put it simply and crudely, proxy states, such as Iran and Syria, enforce their desires in the region.

The warfare has been on going for over two weeks. The Israeli bombardment in retaliation continues and Hezbollah continues to strike Israel with missiles. The fatalities and injuries mount and confusion and suffering grows in Lebanon.

Leaders from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and possibly other Arab states, must help bolster Lebanon's weak democracy, and demilitarize Hezbollah. They must pressure Syria to cease its active support of the guerilla forces by serving as a transit point for Iranian missiles, as well as terminating its undermining of the legal Lebanese government. With either a NATO or UN force, Hezbollah must be separated and sealed off from both Iran and Syria. The Christian Science Monitor in a thoughtful editorial concluded with "The 2006 Lebanon War could be remembered as a turning point in the Middle East. One in which key Arab players gave a full-throated response to radical Islamists"
Perhaps that is overly optimistic for the continuing Israeli bombing of south Lebanon and south Beirut might have strengthened the Hezbollah. The bombings of south Lebanon and Beirut appear to have helped the hand of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbullah leader. It is possible, perhaps likely, that the widespread destruction of infrastructure may have been decisive in turning local anger against Israel, rather than Hezbollah.

Without International intervention, and without a cease fire, that which began as a regional conflict could rapidly become a war of devastating consequences which could only work to the benefit of Iran and Syria.
Michael



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