can remember a time, just a few short years ago, when the great aircraft manufacturers of the world were all American; Boeing, Lockheed, Douglas. They manufactured some 80% of the civilian passenger jets of the world. Now we are out-done by the European Consortium with their various Airbus models, which now account for over 50% of sales. Somehow, American ingenuity and brilliance might see Boeing regain the top spot with their soon to be delivered "Dreamliners" - faster, smaller, more fuel-efficient than the behemoth that the EU is selling. Very soon we will know.
Having said that, what happens when China starts to manufacture Jumbo Jets? They will ,just as assuredly as they are able to manufacture nearly everything else; from cars to computers to pharmaceuticals and anything else the world desires.
I've just finished reading Ted C. Fishman's book "China Inc." It is the amazing story of how the slumbering Red giant awakened and, at near warp speed, transformed itself into the greatest superpower of the very near future. It is a staggering report that deals most forthrightly about how that nation will be a growing challenge for the United States and the whole world.
Ted Fishman will be a guest with me this coming week. I've read and respected his work over the years in the New York Times Magazine, Harpers, USA Today and elsewhere, for years.
I found myself, just this morning, while driving home from KNX-CBS radio thinking about so many avenues of approach to the topic. An example; could there be a more "American" business than Walmart? Yet, I've heard it reported that already over 70% of all the items they sell are imported from China. Did you notice this Christmas that the items you purchased, which previously bore the Made in Japan label, are now of Chinese manufacture?
When the Euro began circulating at the start of 2002, experts claimed that it would take a full half-century for the 12 nation currency to really rival the US dollar. It is, already, nearly there. China is already financing much of our debt. Ours is still the currency used in most international trade. It is how oil and most metals are traded. But what if the world's richest men, Bill Gates and his friend Warren Buffet start betting on our decline? Based on their recent comments at the annual Davos World Economic Forum, that might well be happening already. Perhaps Mr. Gates wants to see an ever-stronger China. Ted Fishman's research shows that more than 90% of Bill Gates products that are used in China are pirated.
They are becoming more and more competition and maybe, soon, the adversary. I hope that it doesn't lead to their becoming the enemy.
We used to be concerned about the sweatshops of Central America. By comparison their workers are over-paid.
China's unstoppable and irreversible growth does not mean that we concede. They need us as customers for the goods they manufacture. They steal our intellectual property .
China will force us all to make changes in the way we think about ourselves as consumers, workers, citizens and even as parents.
Next week, Ted Fishman should be a stimulating guest.